With an election campaign underway against a backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats, expect the Conservatives to come out swinging against Prime Minister Mark Carney, says McMaster political scientist Andrea Lawlor.

“This election will be about who is best positioned to deal with Trump – who do we trust to be the proverbial adult in the room.”

Lawlor shares her insights on Carney’s first few days as prime minister, what it tells us about his priorities and what she thinks the campaign will look like.

Mark Carney had a week or so as prime minister before the election was called. What was he been focused on and what’s next for him now that he’s in campaign mode? 

Mark Carney has had a busy few days. He was sworn in at Rideau Hall and shortly after, set out his cabinet picks, which is one of the most important actions taken by the prime minister in their first few days in office.

This is a slimmer cabinet: Justin Trudeau’s cabinet had 37 members, while Carney’s is 24. He’s done a few things to achieve that number, including consolidating a few portfolios or put more than one portfolio under a particular minister. He’s also elected not to take the same gender-balanced approach to cabinet selection as Trudeau had.

There are some familiar faces in Carney’s cabinet – Dominic LeBlanc, Melanie Joly and Francois-Philippe Champagne remain at the centre of cabinet with the more substantial portfolios like international trade, foreign affairs and finance. A few Trudeau loyalists like Jean-Yves Duclos and Marc Miller are not in cabinet.

His first trip as head of state is also of note: Carney visiting the U.K. and meeting with King Charles, going to France and meeting with Emmanuel Macron and returning home to pay a visit to Canada’s Arctic. This is a clear of his assertion of his priorities.

He has purposefully stayed clear of the U.S. and is looking to shore up our trade connections and allies. The trip to the north may be symbolic in some ways (Carney was born in the north) but it also is very much a statement of some of top policy priorities, which will be security and sovereignty.

With the election call, Prime Minister Carney (as he will still be) will shift into campaign mode and will try to start consolidating his public opinion advantage.

What do you think we can expect from this election campaign?  

After being in a public opinion deficit for the last 18 months, the Liberals have pulled ahead. 338Canada is putting them at a majority position if an election were held today.

The issue is, of course, the election won’t be held today.

I think the question on most people’s minds is: Can the Carney honeymoon last?

Honeymoons by their very definition are short-lived; the question is how short-lived will this one be? Will it last the election campaign, or will it fizzle in the face of what we expect to be very strong criticisms coming in from the Conservative ad machine?

The Conservative war room is prepped – they’ve already unleashed some of their negative advertising campaign against Carney, but these are just the opening salvo. The Conservatives are well-positioned: they are well-funded and have a consistent pipeline of donors willing to support their campaign.

Look for some of Carney’s sheen to perhaps get a bit dulled by what we anticipate to be very aggressive attacks by the Conservatives.

So far, we haven’t seen much by way of spirited opposition from the NDP. In fact, Jagmeet Singh has been stunningly silent in the last few months and that’s because his own polling numbers have dropped considerably.

Current polls are putting the NDP at a smaller projected seat count than the 12 needed for official party status. This suggests Carney has been able to pick up votes from the moderate middle and from the left flank of the electorate.

Why do you think that is? What is about this moment that is enabling Carney to connect with Canadians, at least right now.

Much like the Ontario provincial election, this federal election will be fought on a single question: Who is best positioned to deal with the Trump administration? But it’s a single question that contains within it a number of other very important, more sustained political issues — the economy, housing, our resource economy, defence, sovereignty. This election will largely serve as a referendum on who can best address these concerns.

Additionally, if we look forward, it will be crucial for politicians to reset our national agenda on research and development. We need to become more resourceful in enhancing our economic productivity domestically, rather than always relying on north-south trade routes. This might include the continued reduction of our own internal trade barriers.

What about for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre? He’s had to change his tune quite a bit over the last few months.

To some extent, Poilievre has had to abandon some of the messaging that made him very successful in the last six months of 2024. Statements like “Canada’s broken” and the politics of division now seem ill-conceived in the face of what is being characterized as a crisis of national sovereignty.

Consequently, he has shifted to a “Canada first. Canada always.” approach, even — more recently — taking on negative comments from Donald Trump directly.

While he may have toned down some of the divisive language, he continues to emphasize policy priorities such as building more homes and developing pipelines from east to west. These priorities, which were important at the end of 2024 before Trump’s election, remain significant now.

Another reason he has had to move away from some of that more divisive vocabulary is that positioned him as a combative opposition leader. That is not the vocabulary of a Prime Minister. And you get the job you audition for.

Negative campaigning works, but if you campaign as an opposition leader by being highly critical without also presenting a clear vision for the country’s future, you will be seen as just that — an opposition leader.

For the Conservatives to be successful, it is crucial for Poilievre to start positioning himself more as a statesman.

Is all this Trump tariff and annexation talk making Canadians more politically minded? 

I think Canadians are becoming more politically interested. Anecdotally, Google searches for “What is a tariff?” and “How will tariffs impact the Canadian economy?” have increased significantly.

However, this increased interest does not necessarily translate into higher voter turnout.

Consider the recent Ontario election. This election was fought almost exclusively on perceptions of competence around the handling of trade.

Despite the heightened interest, the voter turnout was only about two percentage points higher than in 2022. This could be attributed to the parties’ failure to differentiate themselves and present viable alternative options.

While Premier Ford ran an excellent campaign, it shows that interest in a political issue alone will not drive voters to the polls unless they feel there is an important choice to be made.

In the federal case, it seems clearer that there is a significant choice to be made. There are two distinct options, both viable, with shared priorities such as protecting national identity and sovereignty, but with very different approaches to achieving these goals.

Voters may be more mobilized to choose between these options, but it will depend on how the parties present themselves during the campaign. This is likely to be a very negative campaign, which can turn voters off.

What an interesting few months for Justin Trudeau. How do you think Trump’s tariffs impacted his last weeks in office? What’s his legacy?

If the former prime minister had resigned when calls for his departure grew louder last fall, his legacy might have been different. At that point, Trudeau would have been remembered as someone who clung to office too long at the expense of the party.

However, after stepping down on Jan. 6, Trudeau entered a brief but high-impact period where he became an outspoken ambassador for Canada.

Unencumbered by electoral concerns, he could speak more freely about national unity and relations with the United States. This allowed him to be more direct than he would have been if he was still trying to hold onto party leadership.

Despite the challenges he has endured to his leadership, Trudeau tends to be effective in crisis settings.

Trudeau’s legacy will be shaped by big policy moments during his nearly 10 years in office. These include advancements in climate action, Indigenous reconciliation, and equity.

However, his legacy will also be mixed, with controversial changes in immigration policy, the housing crisis and his handling of the trucker convoy.

Ultimately, his leadership at the beginning of the trade crisis will be a notable part of his legacy, and I do think it has the potential to soften the hard edges of how he would have otherwise left office.